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What to watch out for in We noted that the EU "seems to be moving from one emergency to the next", and that "Europeans have taken their eyes off more profound long-term challenges".
We concluded that "how the European Union copes with its immediate problems in the next couple of years will determine how the continent will fare in the decades to come.
We ended with two scenarios for the coming years, in order to focus attention on both the opportunities and the risks. A year has passed — where are we now?
Brexit Last year, we argued — against the conventional wisdom at the time — that the risk of a Leave victory in the UK referendum was substantial, fuelled in particular by widespread concerns about refugees and migration. In the event, a slim majority of Britons did vote to leave.
Just a couple of months before its self-declared for triggering the Article 50 process of exit negotiations, the May government does not seem to have a clear and unified strategy for either the negotiation process or what it wants to achieve in the future EU-UK relationship.
The exit negotiations will be difficult and potentially divisive, but are far less important than the negotiations on establishing a new formal relationship between the UK and the EU.
Substantive negotiations will only be possible once the UK government has defined what sort of relationship it wants with the EU There is virtually no chance of even the first two stages of this process to be concluded by the time of the UK exit.
Unless an interim arrangement, which in all probability would have to be based on continued membership of the single market, is agreed prior to the exit date, the UK and the EU will be heading towards a "messy and hard exit", with potentially very disruptive effects for different economic sectors.
It is now confirmed that the May government intends to take the UK out of the single market, which by any reasonable definition is a "hard Brexit". The best that can be achieved for business under these circumstances is probably a "slow but hard Brexit", which allows for adjustments during a longer period.
Economists agree that a hard Brexit would impose significant costs, primarily on the UK, but also on the economies of the EU, with their severity varying from sector to sector. Integrated production chains, for example in the aerospace and automotive industries, will face obvious difficulties.
Businesses from all sectors should also watch what happens to the rules for data flows across the Channel. Migration and refugees The refugee crisis abated after the EU-Turkey migration deal and the closure of the Balkan route in the spring of A dinghy overcrowded by African migrants is seen drifting off the Libyan coast in the Mediterranean Sea Image: The influx into Italy has fuelled mounting concerns and dissatisfaction, which may have contributed to the referendum defeat and resignation of Prime Minister Renzi in December Although the number of asylum seekers in Germany fell to belowin according to preliminary estimates, down from almostinGermany still took in more refugees than the rest of the EU combined.
This has fuelled doubts about EU solidarity among the German population: Three out of four Germans say they feel let down by their European partners.
The seeming stability in the refugee and migrant situation is fragile.
The future of the agreement between the EU and Turkey is not assured, given how much the mutual relationship has deteriorated in the past few months. Turkey feels that the EU did not acknowledge the serious threat posed by the failed coup attempt in July; that European countries are not doing enough to help fight the PKK terrorist group; and that the EU is not willing to deliver the visa freedom that Turkey craves.
The EU, on its part, is concerned about ever tougher restrictions on media freedom and civil liberties in Turkey and has criticized the extent of the post-coup crackdown.
This includes a dialogue with and outreach to the African countries in view of the migration pressures certain to come from there in the decades ahead.
Although the situation remains precarious, we see less risk of chaos and collapse than last year. Relocation inside the EU has largely failed, the African migration issue remains to be effectively addressed and the integration challenge, different in different countries, remains massive.
But overall, the sense of acute crisis driven by the refugee and migration flows has abated. The focus has now shifted towards security and Islamist radicalization within individual EU countries. Although the total number of people killed by successive terrorist attacks in Europe remains relatively low, also in historical comparison, public concern remains very high, driving also important measures to remedy deficiencies in counter-terrorist cooperation among European countries.
The European economy Despite the Brexit shock, the economic situation in the EU and the Eurozone area has continued on its path of gradual improvement during the past year.
Real economic activity is growing, thanks to strong consumption, the ECB's still very accommodating monetary policies, low oil prices and the weaker Euro.
These forces should help produce growth of 1. There are, however, several risks clouding the economic outlook for Europe.Indeed, many of the problems faced by patients and physicians in the Medicare program are exacerbated in the Medicaid population.
How we got here Medicaid and Medicare both result from Title XIX of the Social Security Act passed by Congress in Essay on Medicare Fraud. Medicare fraud is becoming a huge problem in today’s society.
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Democratic and Republican Party Platforms: Side-by-Side Comparison of Issues Important to.